There is a version of the housing market story that gets told over and over, and it goes like this: prices are high, rates are high, nothing is affordable, and the only people buying are the ones with cash. That version is not wrong, exactly. It is just incomplete.
Home prices at the national level have held close to their peaks despite a sharp rise in mortgage rates. The reason is supply. Homeowners who locked in three percent mortgages in 2020 and 2021 have almost no incentive to sell, which means the correction that many analysts were expecting simply did not materialize the way the data suggested it should.
Affordability, by the standard measure of what share of median household income goes toward the monthly payment on a median-priced home, is near its worst level since the early 1980s. That is a real problem, and it is not going away quickly. But affordability being stretched does not mean prices are about to fall sharply. What it means, practically, is that the buyer who can close confidently has more leverage than the headline numbers suggest.
Before you look at a single listing, get your mortgage pre-approval completed and in hand. Not a rough estimate. Not a verbal confirmation from a loan officer you met once. A full pre-approval based on verified income, tax returns, bank statements, and a hard credit pull. In this market, a seller who receives an offer without that documentation will not take it seriously.
The appraisal is the lender’s check, not yours. When the appraisal comes in below contract, the deal does not automatically die, but it does require a decision. Ask your agent how common appraisal gaps have been in your target price range and neighborhood.
A seller with a specific need will sometimes take less money from a buyer who gives them what they actually want. Deal structure has won more competitive situations than overbidding has.
For buyers with the financial cushion to handle a repair bill without panic, this market is more navigable than the headlines suggest. The homes that are priced correctly for current conditions are still moving. They are moving to buyers who showed up prepared.
Real estate rewards preparation more than it rewards timing. Waiting for a better market is a reasonable position only if your personal situation supports it, otherwise you are just paying rent while prices hold. Start by browsing current homes for sale and market resources to build a realistic picture of your options.
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